What Social Science Knows and Does Not Know

Jim Manzi has just published an incisive article in the City Journal titled: What Social Science Does-and Doesn't-Know. In it, he makes a compelling case for experimentation and for the importance of control groups.

He briefly reviews the history of experimentation beginning with Galileo. Then, he provides examples from economics and criminology. He introduces the problem of causal density and writes that it, in effect, dooms many otherwise worthy randomized field trials.

He then moves into the business world citing the success of the credit card company Capitol One. That company answers its own questions via large scale, but relatively economical experimentation. He uses the example of deciding whether to mail customers solicitations in white or blue envelopes. Capitol One simply mailed 50,000 of each color to randomly selected customers and waited to see the results. Since then, other business have adopted similar methods.

He offers three conclusions:

• It is exceedingly difficult to demonstrate that any kind of social program works via traditional randomized and replicated trials. Social evolution with its attendant trial and error process may "trump" those methods.
• Far more social programs fail than succeed, especially programs designed to change the way people think or behave. Incentives work better.
• Most successful programs only lead to modest improvements, but that's ok.

My Office

Here is where I work. Here's a tour from left to right. On the left is one of my servers. It serves my research methods ideas database (private, sorry) and sometimes others (e.g., for candidates for our job searches). Next is my window air conditioner, possibly the most important piece of equipment of all, given our hot summers along with the fact that the building is not cooled from Thursday night until Sunday mornings in the summer. The gooseneck lamp, too, is vital as my eyes get older. The small television is connected to the local cable system and comes in handy when I am doing mechanical work such as grading tests from a key. It stays off when I'm trying to write. It's on top of an old 13" RGB monitor (just in case I ever get another Apple II+) and it's on top of a large speaker. The huge 24" screen belongs to my three-year old, ailing, out-of-warranty iMac. It can no longer be trusted, alas. About once a week it decides to enter an endless loop featuring the spinning Mac pinwheel icon. Fortunately, restarting it seems to kick it out of its misery. There are two phones. The one nearest the foreground no longer has a working line connected to it. It used to be connected to our long gone modem server (remember those days?). That phone is gone now, freeing up some desk space. The scanner between the phones only scans slides now; it's main scanner bulb is weak, plus it costs more to buy the bulb than to buy a new scanner. The stereo works and the wire hanging down from the ceiling is its FM antenna. It's in the only orientation that will receive a good signal. Under the scanner is a 12 port router connecting all of the computers to the Internet and to the local printers. Barely visible on top of the router is my next to last cell phone. It only serves to forward my calls to its number to my new phone. Last on the right is one of the world's fastest System 9 laptops. It was built as aG4 OS X machine but its hard drive died. At about the same time one of our G3 laptop's boards crashed. You can guess the rest, the G4 now holds the G3's old drive, presto. I use that laptop for my old HyperCard materials and for Mac WordPerfect files. So, believe it or not, nearly everything here has a purpose. The office chair is mine. We bought it at an auction long ago. It's more comfortable than it looks. Good thing, I spend lots of time on it. The drawings on the wall are mostly my daughter's work. The stuff behind the iMac is mostly notes to myself along with some wistful thinking about motorcycles. Fortunately I don't really want another one but I will take a two-seater sports car.

Poster Session

The Research Methods II class had their first ever poster session today. Students presented their research projects for about an hour in their classroom. Students from other classes and faculty viewed the posters and interacted with the authors.

In chapter 12, we describe some of the dynamics of poster presentation:

• "Poster sessions usually take place in large rooms equipped with easels and large blank poster boards. Presenters are assigned a poster board, and they use it to post materials describing their research. After they post their materials, presenters stand next to their poster and wait for viewers (their audience) to file by. Interested viewers may pause, read the posted materials, and discuss them with the presenter. Poster presenters usually have copies of a complete report to give to those who are interested."

Here are some pictures of the event:



Kudos to Dr. Brittney Schrick, the new instructor of our Research Methods II class, for putting on the poster session.

Mascots and Autism

Here is a report on a pilot project in Nebraska where autistic volunteers are dressing up in Frito-Lay inflatable costumes of Chester Cheetah. Keith Allen of University of Nebraska Medical Center and Scott Bowen of Signs and Shapes, a company that creates and produces inflatable costumes, are the collaborators.

The hope is that wearing the costume will allow the autistic volunteers to adopt a new identity while wearing the costume.

This is certainly a far out research idea. Hopefully it will work.

Redheads and Pain

A recent article in the New York Times discusses the relationship between pain and having red hair. The problem is especially acute in dentistry. Redheads tend to avoid visiting the dentist because the usual does of analgesics (painkillers) are not effective.

The apparent cause seems to be the MC1R gene. In most people, that gene creates melanin. In redheads, however, the gene produces pheomelanin instead, causing red hair and fair skin. Another effect of pheomelanin is increased pain sensitivity, both for general and topical anesthesia.

Here's a research idea. Expose redheads and non-redheads to the cold pressor test, a standard laboratory test for pain using time as the dependent variable. Redheads, as a group, should remove their hands sooner.

Another Batch of Student Research Ideas: Summer 2009

Here are the latest research ideas from my Research Methods I students:

• Coach's Personality and Team Success
• Drug Abuse and College Students: Drugs of Choice
• Grade Inflation by College at Southern Arkansas University
• Prevalence of Date Rape Among SAU College Students
• Differences is Altruism Between Male and Female College Students
• Traditional vs. Non-traditional Undergraduate College Students: GPA Differences
• College Students from Divorced Homes Views on Marriage and Relationships
• Does Participation in Greek Life Affect Male and Female GPAs Differently?
• Does Regular Bible Reading Affect Pro-social Behaviors and Values?
• Are Male College Students Less Faithful than Female Students?
• Violent Criminal Family Histories: Effects of Parents Marital Status
• Is Recidivism More Likely with Mild or Harsh Punishment?

Texting and Length of Relationship

Modern love and romance seem inextricably linked to communication. But, I wonder is there too much of a good thing. Specifically, does texting predict relationship success?

I'm betting there's an inverse relationship, the more lovers text, the shorter their relationship will last.

A search of PsycINFO for "texting" found 24 hits, none closely related to relationship length. A couple did relate to a sexual topic, the use of texting to convey information about sexuality and risks of sex.

Someone, please test my hypothesis...